This morning as I was enjoying a well-earned coffee break a fascinating
announcement lit up my Twitter feed. It was about “The Leap Manifesto”. By
the breathless tweets I expected a highly-researched document full of insight
and new ideas, maybe like An Ecomodernist
Manifesto that I blogged about earlier this year. To my disappointment I
found a minimalist web page almost completely free of useful references or critical
details.
Looking deeper, I went to the “sign the manifesto”
section where I observed “The 15 Demands” which apparently form the meat
of this Manifesto. These demands range from somewhat reasonable to the
ridiculous to the sublime and would take numerous blog posts to address
individually. Happily for me, I have been writing this blog for almost a year
and the Manifesto addresses a number of topics I have previously covered in detail. That being said
no one is going to sit and read 5000+ words on this topic so I tonight will stick
to my area of blogging expertise and address Demands #2, #3 and #6.
Demand #2 says the following:
The latest
research shows we could get 100% of our electricity
from renewable resources within two decades; by 2050 we could have a
100% clean economy. We demand that this shift begin
now.
This demand is the only one of the lot that
actually has any references associated with it since it is discussed on the
cover page of the web site. The statement references two documents:
Sustainable Canada
Dialogues. (2015). Acting on climate change: Solutions from Canadian
scholars. Montreal, QC: McGill University
Jacobson, M., et al. Providing all global energy with wind, water, and
solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of
infrastructure, and materials. Energy Policy 39:3 (2011).
Regular readers of this blog will k now well how I
feel about these two documents. The
first is a feel-good document written in a policy-orientated style that fails
to impress. The major problem with the document is that it has been written by
urbanites who appear completely unaware of the scale of our transportation
issues in Canada. I will not go further into that concept until later (Demand
#6). Instead I will hit the bigger target: the Jacobson paper.
I have already written a couple very detailed blog
posts on the Jacobson paper. The two blog posts are nominally about a follow-up
paper but both primarily detail shortcomings in the Jacobson 2011 Paper. The
first: Deconstructing the 100% Fossil Fuel Free Wind,
Water and Sunlight USA paper – Part I Why no nuclear power? addresses serious shortcomings
in the Jacobson model with respect to nuclear power. The second: Deconstructing the 100% Fossil Fuel Free Wind,
Water and Sunlight USA paper – Part II What about those pesky rare earth
metals? points out that renewable energy technologies depend heavily on a rare
earth metals. As I point out in another blog post On renewables and compromises Part II Rare earths
in renewable technologies (and a
follow-up blog post at the Huffington Post which I will discuss later) we
simply do not have a supply of rare earth metals necessary to address the needs
of the facilities suggested in Demand #2. It is lovely to demand that the government do
something but before you make a demand you might try to determine whether accomplishing the
demand is even possible?
Arguably the first half of Demand #2 (100% electrical
energy in 20 years) may conceivably possible, with a Herculean effort, but the part
about achieving 100 % clean energy by 2050 (i.e. 100% fossil fuel free energy
status) is simply a pipe dream. I did an intellectual exercise detailing what
it would take to achieve a fossil fuel-free British Columbia, the short version
is here: Dispelling Some Myths About British Columbia's
Energy Picture and the more detailed version is here: Starting a Dialogue - Can we really get to a
"fossil fuel-free BC"? The take-home message from those pieces: In order to achieve a "fossil fuel-free
B.C." we would need to somehow replace the almost 60 per cent of our
energy needs currently being met with fossil fuels through alternative sources.
Given that BC, which is incredibly rich in hydro, cannot reasonably achieve a
fossil fuel-free status in the timeline presented the idea that Saskatchewan or Ontario
could achieve similar results without a heavy investment in nuclear power, is simply
inconceivable.
This brings us to Demand #3
No new infrastructure projects that lock us into increased extraction
decades into the future. The new iron law of energy development must be: if you wouldn’t want it in your backyard, then it doesn’t
belong in anyone’s backyard.
Demand #3 is a typical NIMBY/BANANA demand and reflects
a common misconception about energy amongst the non-technically inclined. I
address the problem in detail in another blog post On
Renewables and compromises, Intermission: Energy Density and Power Density
which points out that while our modern society is very power-hungry and uses a
lot of energy, most renewable energy sources have very low energy density. Energy
density is the amount of energy stored in a unit of mass or volume.
The thing that makes fossil fuels so attractive to our society is that they
represent a very dense energy source. The reason that fossil fuels are so
energy dense is that Mother Nature has done the all-important job of converting
the power of the sun into a biological form, then geology compressed it from a
less dense to a more dense form. Large energy projects cannot, by their nature,
reasonably
be put in every person’s backyard. If we are going to survive in a renewable
energy future we will need a lot of energy from hydro and geothermal sources
and you simply can’t put a commercial-scale geothermal or hydro facility in
anyone’s backyard.
To put it into perspective, solar, the
highest density renewable, has a theoretical power density of up to 200 W/m2
but that the best solar collection systems seldom do better than 20 W/m2
(in desert solar photovoltaic farms). The further north (or south) you go the
lower the theoretical maximum, and thus the lower the resultant systems. A
truly exceptional visualization of this is presented by David Mackay at
http://withouthotair.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/david-mackays-map-of-world-update.html.
As for the remaining renewables, the best biofuels can achieve about 2 W/m2 while
wind can achieve a maximum of about 3 W/m2. As Dr. Wilson points
out, since Germany and the United Kingdom consume energy at a rate of
approximately 1 W/m2 in order to supply either country with power
using wind they would need to cover half of their total land mass with wind turbines
which is not a realistic option in a country with cities, farms and forests.
Even with that density, the country would be powerless in the dead of winter or
on any wind-free evening.
As for these energy systems, as I mentioned above,
they cannot function without rare earth metals and as I point out in my blog
post Our
Demand For Renewable Energy Comes With Canada's Dirty Little Secret rare
earth metals facilities are neither small nor are they clean and they certainly
do not fit under the “new iron law”. The activists who prepared these demands appear
to be unaware of where the wood, metal, concrete and aluminum needed to create
their infrastructure actually comes from. None of these can be scaled down to what you would
build in your backyard.
NIMBY only works if you are rich enough to be able to
import your raw materials from somewhere else. While I agree that most of the
initial signers of the Manifesto might be that rich, the rest of us aren’t and
so we will continue to need to hew wood and draw water.
I must say of all the demands the one I find most
amusing is Demand #6:
We want high-speed rail powered by just renewables and affordable
public transit to unite every community in this country – in place of
more cars, pipelines and exploding trains that endanger and divide us.
I cannot imagine greater proof that this list was
written by a bunch of urbanites than a suggestion that we connect the country
(and all cities) by high-speed rail, powered by renewables. As I wrote in my
blog post Dispelling
Some Myths About British Columbia's Energy Picture
With improved transit and smart
planning we should be able to reduce our energy needs for transportation; but the
vast majority of British Columbia cannot be served by mass transit. There is
simply not enough money available to give every driver from Creston to Fort
Saint John and from Invermere to Prince Rupert an alternative to driving. That
means that for most of British Columbia, we will still need personal vehicles.
Moreover, all the transit in the
world will not address the need for panel vans and light trucks. Contractors,
suppliers and salespeople cannot rely on the transit system. Try to imagine a
plumber attempting to transport a new sink or toilet and all her supplies/tools
to a job site on a bus?
Finally, no amount of transit will
reduce the need for the transport trucks that bring the groceries to market and
supply the boutiques of Vancouver. The last time I looked it was pretty much
impossible to move a pallet of milk or apples on SkyTrain.
Given our current technological state
we are nowhere near a position where British Columbia can achieve 100 percent
fossil fuel-free status. Any plan that ignores that fact is simply magical
thinking.
I think that last line
pretty much summarizes my opinion of the 15 Demands and The
Leap Manifesto. They ignore the laws of physics and show a profound misunderstanding
of energy science. As such they represent nothing more than the magical thinking
of a bunch of activists who have never actually had to hammer out how a system
like the one they “demand” would be sourced, built and paid for. The authors of
the Manifesto are well-meaning but appear to lack the real-world experience to
understand that Canada is a HUGE country and building a trans-continental
railway was an incredible achievement. The thought of connecting every
community in Canada by rail (powered by renewables no less) doesn’t even
warrant the description “pie in the sky” it is simply delusional.
This one is pretty funny
ReplyDelete"And since we know this leap is beginning late, we need to invest in our decaying public infrastructure so that it can withstand increasingly frequent extreme weather events."
I especially liked the NIMBY line about if something doesn't belong in your backyard it doesn't belong anywhere.
ReplyDeleteA lot of people in Ontario would love to be able to invoke that demand and rid themselves of those ugly wind turbines and solar panels.
Dreams of utopia - whats wrong with that. Many are inhabiting a lucid dystopia right now, never mind 20 years from now. Are we comfortably insulated from objective reality, or willfully ignorant. The leap agenda is a working hypothesis. A wish list.
ReplyDelete.
The leap agenda is a working hypothesis. A wish list.
DeleteI think it's clear it is a non-workable hypothesis. A demand list.
I would tend to agree with Mark. The use of the term "demand" does a good job of indicating the intentions of the authors, in my opinion.
DeleteI would have a lot more respect for the modern environmentalist movement if they actually spent more time advocating plausible solutions rather then lists of demands based on delusions of utopia. A prime example the the author has cited, replace dirtier power sources such as coal with cleaner and more efficient ones such as nuclear. I don't necessarily agree with abolishing coal as an energy source as coal burning technology has come a long way in recent years, but in advocating for wind and solar as replacements they have left no other option but to have gas fired power plants on standby for the times when the wind does not blow or that the sun does not shine. Another one is the automobile, rather then abolishing the motor car, promoting electric cars, or demanding fuel economy and emission standards that defy the laws of physics, why not advocate natural gas as an alternative fuel?
ReplyDeleteBut I think that the most revealing aspect of this manifesto is that they want to replace an economic and social order that works, albeit with flaws, with one that cannot and never will.
Some valid observations yet don't get hung up on semantics.
ReplyDeleteUrgency of action is the gist of the tract.
The use of the word demand seems clear to me simply an emotive one used to convey the seriousness of the challenges before us.
Revolution being another emotive word denoting the urgency of the issues and the speed at which we are running out of time to influence outcomes.
Obviously the manifest people are in no position to make demands. However action is required and a vision for the future is needed that is not the present trend of economic and social order that supplies stability and wealth for a small minority at the expense of the many and the future of humanity.
If present trends continue... History is replete with evidence of endemic warfare, degraded environments and failed societies.
To avoid dystopia would require evolution not revolution guided by rational objective, scientific thought and a vision of compassion and justice for humanity and a balance towards environmental sustainability. With political will - achievable goals within our present democratic systems.
A disparate group of fringers have issued a joint statement of what they think a fair and just society should be. Not all goals are immediately practical but are the spirit and vision of the goals worthy?
The purpose is to generate discussion and awareness and hopefully influence future decisions. Every journey needs a destination. Even a petrol head like myself can see that much or perhaps Ive spent too much time with my head in a gas can.
I'd like to point out that a great deal of the growth of "interurban electric railways" in the United States in the period 1900-1915 was driven precisely by their use in moving agricultural & horticultural produce from surrounding regions into urbanized areas, some of which were actually quite small towns by most standards. Chicago even had a subway used for deliveries, & to carry away ashes from cellars. If your transit system doesn't support goods movement, it's because the planners did a poor job, not because that function is ruled out by the nature of the thing.
ReplyDeleteAside from that, the discussion over battery-electric automobiles generally (so it seems to me) misses an important point. Delivery & commercial vehicles, especially those which belong to fleets, are ideal subjects for electrification, because their distance-driven-per-day is far more predictable than that of the typical private car. The same may go for transit buses, although a little trolley wire helps enormously there.
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